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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 6th, 2021–Dec 7th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Wind affected and loose snow have bonded poorly with the rain crust. Approach wind loaded features like ridge crests with caution, and manage your exposure to terrain traps in sheltered terrain where loose snow could run faster and further than expected. 

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Snowfall tapers into the afternoon, cloudy overnight with flurries possible. Moderate westerly winds. Freezing levels at valley bottom.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy with no precipitation. Strong northwest winds, freezing levels at valley bottom. Alpine highs of -9. 

WEDNESDAY: Snow returns Tuesday night with 10-15cm expected by late Wednesday. Freezing levels rise to 1000m, alpine highs of -5. 

THURSDAY: Light snowfall continues, with light westerlies. Freezing levels below 500m. 

Avalanche Summary

Several size 1 wind slabs were skier triggered Tuesday Dec 6 and Monday Dec 5 in immediate lees at treeline and above. 

On Sunday, small loose dry avalanches were observed out of steep sheltered terrain features. Size 1-1.5 wind slab avalanches were observed in immediate lee features at ridge crest. 

Small avalanches will move quickly on the crust bed surface. Be mindful of what is below you, such as cliffs and gullies, especially in steep terrain. 

Note there are very few field observations this early in the season. If you venture out into the mountains, please share your observations and/or photos on the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

15-35cm of low density snowfall sits over a thick and supportive crust, on all aspects below 2400m. Moderate to strong westerly winds continue to redistribute this new snow into deeper deposits in lee features in the alpine and treeline. 

Early season crusts sit 20-30cm above the ground. Last week's heavy rain saturated the snowpack and has begun to break down this crust at treeline and below, creating a cohesive lower snowpack.

Snowpack depths range from 10-80 cm at treeline elevations. The snowpack tapers quickly below 1800m, significantly diminished by the rain event. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Westerly winds will continue to build wind slabs in the alpine and treeline. Approach ridge crest and wind loaded features with caution. These wind slabs will be most reactive to human triggering where they overlie a thick, smooth rain crust. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2