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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2015–Jan 18th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Several weak layers are buried in the snowpack making now a good time to dig a snow profile before choosing where to ride. If you do dig - we'd love to hear what you find. Click on the pin icon to the submit to the Mountain Information Network

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

A front will move over the interior of the province bringing precipitation overnight through Sunday with expected accumulations of between 10 and 20cm of snow. Temperatures are forecast to rise briefly at the end of the some storm and lower elevations may see rain. Moderate southwesterly winds will prevail through the storm. The rest of the forecast period will see a clearing pattern as a strong ridge builds that looks to last through the rest of the week.

Avalanche Summary

The forecast snow and wind are expected to drive a natural avalanche cycle on Sunday. Conditions are likely to be especially touchy in wind-loaded features at tree line where fresh slabs will be sitting on a layer of surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

The forecast precipitation will add load to the layer surface hoar surface hoar and or crust which exists in many places up to 1900m.  At higher elevation it wil fall on old, stiff wind slabs. 75 cm below the surface you may find a hard, thick crust that was buried in mid-December. In many places this crust is overlaid by facets and/or surface hoar. In areas where the overlying slab is thick and cohesive, large avalanches are possible at this interface. Closer to the ground a crust/facet interface that formed in November seems to be dormant for the time being.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The forecast snow and wind will load lee features.  At treeline pockets of wind-slab maybe sitting on top of a layer of surface hoar.
Highmark or enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A buried persistent weakness, down 30-70 cm, should remain on your radar as it has the potential to produce large avalanches.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack where triggering could be more likely.>Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5