Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

Thursday night and Friday: Enhanced precipitation are expected over the region with the low pressure tracking over the region tonight. Freezing levels will start to drop (1700 m.) bringing the snow line lower. Light to moderate amounts are expected until Friday and will taper off becoming light during the day. Moderate to strong winds should switch from the SW to the W.Saturday: Unsettled conditions without any frontal systems bringing very light precipitation,moderate to strong W winds, mainly cloudy skies and freezing levels near 1500 m.Sunday: Similar pattern as Saturday with cooler temperatures and lighter winds.

A natural avalanche cycle happened yesterday at all elevation and on all aspect up to size 3 in the Lizard Range region. Suspect similar cycle in the South Rockies region where precipitation amounts were similar.

The warm storm has left a significant amount of wet precipitation or heavy snow (10-30 cm of heavy snow above 1800m. and rain under).  At higher elevations, snow has been transported by strong SW and W winds creating windslabs that are probably very touchy. Below the freezing line, the snowpack is rain soaked. Another pulse of precipitation is forecasted, adding weight onto the storm slab and the already moist/wet snowpack.  The new snow has not been bonding well to the underlying surfaces creating natural avalanche activity and showing signs of instability like cracking around skis.  Some of the significant underlying surfaces mentioned before include a suncrust on S aspects and a melt-freeze crust on all aspects below 1700 m.