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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 7th, 2022–Apr 8th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Continually assess the snow surface and watch for natural avalanche activity as you move through terrain. There is uncertainty in how the snowpack will respond to the rapidly changing freezing levels.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: No new snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Possibility of temperature inversion with above freezing layer in the alpine.

Friday: Stormy with 5 to 10 cm of snow in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds and freezing levels falling to 2100 m.

Saturday: Stormy with up to 15 cm of new snow expected. Moderate southwest winds and freezing levels around 1500 m. 

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light westerly winds and freezing levels around 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days ski cutting and explosive control produced storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5 in the alpine and treeline. Several size 1.5 natural storm slab and dry loose avalanches were also observed.

We suspect that wet slab and wet loose avalanches could occur on all aspects and elevations with continued high freezing levels on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow will be observed on all aspects and elevations. As the freezing level falls in the evening a new crust will form.

 Multiple crust exist in the upper snowpack. The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Avalanche Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet slab and wet loose avalanches could increase in size and sensitivity to triggering as the freezing level stays elevated. The underlying crust will make a good sliding surface and may result in greater propagation.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Natural cornice falls will remain likely with elevated freezing levels.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2