Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A frontal system will approach the south coast on Thursday afternoon and should result in precipitation for Thursday night and Friday morning. A second, larger system should reach the south coast early Saturday.Thursday: Increasing cloud cover, snowfall beginning in the late afternoon, freezing levels am: 800m pm: 1500m, ridgetop wind light SWThurs. Night/Friday: Snow 15-20cm, freezing levels am: 1000m pm: 1300m, ridgetop wind 20-30 km/h SWSaturday: Precipitation moderate to heavy, freezing levels am: 500-800m, pm: ~1800m, ridgetop wind 30-40 km/h SW

The weekend saw widespread natural activity.  Isolated activity was reported on Monday.  No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday.

The storm snow from the weekend is reported to be settling rapidly and bonding well with the snow below.  There are two persistent weak layers which remain a concern but the problem is becoming isolated.  The early-March crust/facet layer is down roughly 1m and the early-Feb layer is down 1.5m or more.  These layers are typically deep enough that human-triggering is unlikely but smaller avalanches or cornices have the potential to step down to these layers.  During the avalanche cycle on the weekend we saw avalanches stepping down to these layers and resulting in large, destructive avalanches.  Use caution in thin snowpack areas where triggering a layer could be possible.Strong SW winds during the storm created widespread wind slabs on lee features in the alpine.  These are breaking down and getting harder to trigger but may still pose a threat in some areas.Freezing levels have been cycling between valley bottom and roughly 2000m, and low elevation terrain saw significant rain on the weekend.  The snowpack at lower elevations is generally stable but it may be possible to trigger loose wet activity from steep terrain during the heat of the day.