Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 21st, 2016–Feb 22nd, 2016

Alpine

2: Moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

Alpine

2: Moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

Alpine

2: Moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Watch out for pockets of wind slab and give cornices a wide berth.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: flurries overnight with up to 6cm expected, becoming mainly sunny through the day, light and variable winds, 1500m freezing level. TUESDAY: mainly sunny light southeasterly winds, 1500m freezing level. WEDNESDAY: mainly sunny, light westerly winds, 1500m freezing level with an inversion and above freezing level extending possible in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and artificially triggered storm slab avalanches have been reported in the last couple of days. Wind slab avalanches are expected to be remain reactive to human-triggering. Cornices are reported to large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow continues to settle and gain strength. Ongoing southeast through southwest winds have been loading leeward features in the alpine and large cornice development has been reported over the last few days. About 80cm of snow now sits on a thick rain crust that extends into the alpine. The overlying snow is reported to be bonding well to this crust. A weak surface hoar layer buried in early January can be found down over a meter deep. It is becoming increasingly hard to make this layer fail in snowpack tests and triggering an avalanche on it is unlikely.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent storm slabs continue to be reactive to rider triggering especially on wind loaded slopes. If the sun shines it may have enough punch to trigger natural avalanches.

The new snow will require time to settle and stabilize. >Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices are expected to grow with the forecast snow and wind and may collapse naturally. The weight of a person may be enough to cause a cornice failure.

Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4