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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 13th, 2018–Mar 14th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Isolated wind slabs at higher elevations are the main concern right now. Remain vigilant around cornices, and minimize overhead exposure.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

We're looking at small amounts of new snow and slightly warmer than normal temperatures throughout the forecast period. Scattered convective activity on Thursday and Friday could result in locally higher snowfall totals.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with wet flurries in the afternoon (2-6 cm). Light to moderate south west winds. Freezing level falling to 1700 metres late in the day, with alpine high temperatures of +2.THURSDAY: Scattered flurries (2-5cm possible). Light northerly winds. Freezing level around 1600 metres with alpine high temperatures around 0 degrees.FRIDAY: Scattered flurries (2-5cm possible). Light northerly winds. Freezing level 1300 metres with alpine high temperatures of 0 degrees.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from the past four days of sunny weather included many wet loose avalanches to size 1.5. These occurred in steeper terrain on sunny aspects.

Snowpack Summary

The last snowfall was Thursday's storm, which brought 20-30 cm of new snow by Friday morning. Since then, isolated wind effect has created patchy wind slabs at higher elevations, but really, the main story has been the sun's effect on south and west facing slopes over the past several days. Daytime heating has resulted in moist or wet snow on sunny aspects, freezing to form a crust overnight. Persistent weak layers from early January and mid-December are still being reported by local operators. They are generally considered dormant, but could wake up with a surface avalanche stepping down, a cornice fall, or a human trigger in a shallow or variable-depth snowpack area. These layers consist of sun crust, surface hoar and/or facets.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs formed on many aspects during last week's storm and may remain reactive. Extra caution is needed on solar aspects where sunshine could act as a natural trigger with a buried sun crust as a sliding layer.
Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.Watch for wind loaded pockets near ridge crests and roll oversUse ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5