Avalanche Forecast

Good - The weather pattern is stable

The weather forecast looks much as it has for the last few days.  Saturday could see some light precipitation in the form on isolated flurries with light northeast winds and daytime high freezing level of 1200m.  Sunday and Monday are expected to be clear and dry with light northerly winds and a freezing level of 1200m to 1600m.

Things appear to be locked up tight and no new avalanches have been reported in the last couple of days.

A wide spread crust can now be found all the way to ridge crest.  Surface hoar has been reported above this crust in the areas around Nelson.  The curst is effectively “caping” the snowpack and doing a good job of protecting the buried weak layers bellow.  However, recent snowpack tests suggest that the mid-January surface hoar layer could still produce an avalanche if given a large enough trigger.  It can be found down about 1m in the alpine and 50-60cm at treeline. The mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar weakness may persist in the mid to lower snowpack at higher elevations.