Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2016 10:05AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Kootenay Boundary.

Saturday looks like another warm day in the alpine, so continue to avoid being on or underneath terrain that's basking in the sun. Watch for small wind slabs lurking on all aspects immediately lee of ridge crest.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - The weather pattern is stable

Weather Forecast

There is a big atmospheric shift going on right now. We seem to be moving away from the nice active pattern into more of a classical El Nino pattern. There is a small blip of a storm that may impact the Coast Monday, but it looks high and dry for the extended future. SATURDAY: Freezing level at valley bottom, above freezing temperatures between 1800 m and 2800 m, light SW wind, no precipitation. SUNDAY: Freezing level at valley bottom, light SE wind, no precipitation. MONDAY: Freezing level at valley bottom, light SE wind, no precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday activity has been limited to small loose snow avalanches running in the upper snowpack. There is probably more of this activity on solar aspects than the more shady north and east aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures are helping all the recent storm snow to settle and bond to the existing snowpack. Previous to the warming, storm slabs up to 40cm in depth were touchy in the southern Monashees around Big White. Across the region, 5 to 25 cm of rapidly settling snow rests on a variety of weak layers including small grain facets, surface hoar up to 14 mm in size and a sun crust on steep south and southwest facing features. Underneath this you'll find 40 to 60 cm of old storm snow that should be settling too. Under this old storm snow the mid-December crust can be found. This interface was never problematic, but in Kootenay Pass there is a spotty surface hoar layer on or just above this crust that is most prevalent on north facing features between 1800 and 2000 m. At treeline the early December crust is down around 70 to 130 cm. This thick and supportive crust is likely capping any deeper weaknesses in most places. There have been reports of facets on this crust in the Nelson area, so we'll want to keep our eye on it as we move into early 2016. The lower snowpack is thought to be well settled.

Problems

Loose Wet

Another day of warm alpine temps and sunshine may initiate natural dry, moist and wet loose avalanches, especially on solar aspects.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, time of day and aspect.>Avoid steep sun exposed terrain like rocky cliffs and cut banks when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Light northerly winds may be forming thin wind slabs in unusual locations. Previous SW/W winds created wind slabs that are getting old & tired, but may still be sensitive to triggering immediately lee of ridge crest.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2016 2:00PM