Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Synopsis: Light precipitation is possible Saturday afternoon as a weak system passes over the SE portion of the province. On Sunday a strengthening ridge of high pressure drives cold and dry conditions that will likely persist for the next week. Saturday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precipitation: 2-5mm | 2-10cm; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Strong, W.Sunday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precipitation: Trace; Wind: Treeline: Light, E/NE | Ridgetop: Moderate to Strong E/SE.Monday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precipitation: Nil; Treeline: Moderate, NE | Ridgetop: Moderate, NE.

On Thursday a party of skiers triggered a size 2 avalanche on a SW facing slope around 1800m in the Nelson area. Two people were reportedly caught and carried but thankfully ended up on the surface as everything came to a stop. This type of activity is likely to persist for the foreseeable future.

30 - 70 cm of snow from the last week is consolidating into a slab above a touchy weak layer formed in mid-December consisting of surface hoar sitting on a thick rain crust. This combo is thought to extend as high as 2400 m. This layer will likely remain sensitive to human triggering for the foreseeable future. High elevation north facing slopes likely do not have the rain crust, but are still reported to have touchy buried surface hoar. On these slopes, deeper facets or buried surface hoar from earlier in the month may also be lurking. At the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet combo appears to have gone dormant for the time being.