Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 19th, 2013 4:18PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

garth lemke, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Winds continue to buffet the Icefields yet good skiing can be found in sheltered locations. Weather models are not agreeing with amounts or timing of warm front. If more precipitation arrives plus warmer temperatures, expect the danger to increase.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will bring a warm front, possibly 5-10cm of snow, rain lower elevations with freezing level 1700m, and strong SW alpine winds. The models are not agreeing with Wednesday's timing. Thursday will have cooling trend, diminished winds, flurries, and lower freezing level. Friday will be much like Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Soft slabs continue to form at exposed treeline locations and above fromÂ today's moderate West winds. Previous North winds reverse loaded many slopes and gullies. 90cm of snow fell since March 13. Snow transport is occurring. At treeline, soft slabs rest on a suncrust 80 cm deep in south facing terrain. Below treeline is generally supportive.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday's patrol had 100% visibility. Several recent large avalanches to size 3 noted on large high elevation features on various aspects from the past 24hrs. A number of loose moist avalanches up to size 2 were noted mainly from sun impacted slopes, gullies, and cliffs. All these observed recent avalanches were running relatively far.Â

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Wind Slabs

100cm cm has fallen since March 13. Initially strong N winds reverse loaded many slopes but now has shifted to moderate Westerly. Soft slabs are developing below ridgelines yet remains spotty in many zones. Wind transport is occurring in alpine.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

There remains allot of unconsolidated storm snow available. It is is susceptible to solar, wind and human triggering forming loose snow avalanches of significant mass. Enough to knock climbers or skiers off their line particularly when its moist..

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Finish ice climbs early in the day before the temperature rises.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 20th, 2013 4:00PM