Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 17th, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Dry and Persistent Slabs.

garth lemke, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Exact wind speeds and snow amounts remain uncertain for Sunday evening into Monday. Monitor for intense snow transport building slabs.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Sunday will be -20 to -15 degrees with light West winds and possibly flurries. Sunday to Monday evening will be slightly warmer temperatures -16 to -12 degrees and 5-10cm of snow with increasing West winds. Winds may gust strong to extreme range in wind prone areas at higher elevations Sunday night and Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps are promoting facetting in the snowpack breaking down internal cohesion, especially below 2100ms. Where snowpack is shallow, expect to be standing on the ground. Deeper snowpack areas have faceted down to the Nov12 crust (45-90cm deep). May be a buried SH layer down 5cm to keep an eye on.

Avalanche Summary

No patrol Saturday. Brrrrrrrr coooooold. No new avalanches reported.

Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable on Monday

Problems

Loose Dry

Cold temps have weakened the snow clinging to steep terrain, and as a result shedding and sluffing should be expected.

Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Although this layer has been dormant, it is still a concern and is widespread between 2100-2600m.

Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Dec 18th, 2016 4:00PM