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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 17th, 2016–Feb 18th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Pay close attention to terrain selection and signs of instabilities such as shooting cracks and whumffing.

Weather Forecast

Low pressure in the gulf of Alaska is driving a warm westerly flow over the park. Overnight temps will drop below freezing but will rise to 2,100m tomorrow. Flurries at upper elevations may shed 5cm with moderate SW winds. Temperatures will cool off on Friday and into the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate SW winds are building a wind slab  at treeline and into the alpine. These slabs may be up to 40cm thick and are weekly bonded to the snowpack below. The mid-pack consists of buried wind and persistent slab with a failure plane down 60cms. In the valley bottom the snowpack is very week and unconsolidated making for tough trail breaking.

Avalanche Summary

Field team in the Whistler Creek drainage reported isolated large avalanches to size 3 in the alpine.  It is possible to trigger slab avalanches from a distance at treeline and above in wind loaded features; as was done on the 16th to size two in the Whister Creek drainage.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Previously formed slabs now comprise the upper and mid-pack in many locations. Natural and human triggered avalanches are possible.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Strong winds have redistributed storm snow and wind slab can be found at all elevations. Caution on cross loaded gullies and lee aspects.
Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3