Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

A deep upper trough is moving through BC this weekend. A few disturbances are expected to continue to deliver moderate precipitation into southwestern BC through Friday night. As the trough exits Saturday, snowfall is expected to cease as the freezing level drops to valley bottom. Sunday offers a break in the action before modest snowfall begins again on Monday.FRIDAY NIGHT: 5 to 15 cm of snow, strong to extreme southwest wind, freezing level at 1500m, falling throughout the night.SATURDAY: Overcast skies, freezing level near valley bottom rising to about 700m in the afternoon, moderate SW wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow. SUNDAY: Overcast skies, freezing level near valley bottom rising to about 600m in the afternoon, moderate SW wind, no significant precipitation expected. MONDAY: Overcast skies, freezing level around 500m, moderate SW wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow. Visit avalanche.ca/weather for a more detailed mountain weather forecast.

On Thursday skiers triggered wind slabs on both northeast and southeast aspects to size 2, see this great MIN report from Thar Peak Thursday: https://bit.ly/2lFjEQL Reports from Wednesday include several natural avalanches in steep leeward alpine terrain up to Size 2.

Much of the region received 30 to 70cm of fresh snow this week, which has been blown into deep drifts by southerly winds and is bonding poorly to facets and buried surface hoar, as well as crust on previously sun-exposed slopes. The widespread mid-February crust is below all this. In the northern part of the region, a facet/surface hoar weakness buried early February, is now down around a metre and remains reactive in snowpack tests. It is also suspected as the failure plane in at least one of two recent large persistent slab avalanches in the Hurley Pass area. In the Cascades (e.g. Coquihalla), the mid and lower snowpack are well settled and strong.