Avalanche Forecast

Good

The ridge of high pressure flattens on Thursday allowing a couple weak disturbances to cross the province. We should see more cloud with possible light flurries each day. The freezing level is around 1400-1500 m on Thursday and should lower to around 800-1000 m by Saturday. Winds are light gusting moderate from the W-NW. The ridge rebuilds on Friday but we might not see full clearing until late Saturday. After this it looks like at least a few more days of dry and sunny weather.  

On Tuesday a couple natural cornice falls were observed. These were size 2-2.5 but did not trigger slabs on the slopes below. There was also one report of a size 3 slab on a sun-exposed alpine slope. This slide was observed from a distance but did look fresh. Neighboring regions reported similar activity with cornice fall and isolated deep slabs being the main concern.

The snow surface is a mix of surface hoar, crusts, 10-25 cm of low density snow, or wind affected snow depending on aspect and elevation. The "Valentine's Day" crust is just below the surface and is now strong and thick in most places. At alpine elevations, new wind slabs may have formed from NW winds, and cornices are large and weak. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer (up to 100 cm deep) and the mid-January surface hoar (80-120 cm deep) continue to give variable results in snowpack tests. Chances of triggering these weaknesses have decreased, but triggering may be possible from thin or rocky snowpack areas; or perhaps with a cornice fall, or an avalanche stepping down, especially on sun drenched slopes.