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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 28th, 2013–Apr 29th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

The stormy weather will continue on Monday.  The avalanche danger will be highest on windloaded alpine slopes.

Weather Forecast

Another low will move through Sunday night bring more snow and moderate to strong Westerlies, leaving  cool unstable air  in its wake.  A slow warming trend is expected to begin by mid-week, could it finally be spring?

Snowpack Summary

25-30 cm of moist storm snow is sitting on an isothermal snowpack at treeline.  Storm slabs 30-50 cm thick are on sitting on the April 25th melt freeze crust in the alpine.  Isothermal conditions below treeline that may have a weak melt freeze crust develop overnight.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches observed on a patrol from Jasper to Saskatchewan Crossing with fair visibility

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

25 cm of storm snow has fallen with another 15-20 expected.  Strong Westerly winds have moved this snow onto lee aspects and suspect that thick slabs have developed on the old melt freeze crust.  Bonding of these slabs to the crust is uncertain.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Plenty of fresh snow and strong Westerly winds will continue to build cornices and increase the likelihood of cornice failure. Deep releases from a wet snowpack may run far into the valley bottom.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3