Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 4th, 2012 4:15PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

mike eder, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The forecast calls for steady snowfall overnight with higher amounts around the Icefields area. This will be combined with moderate Southwest winds in the alpine.Â Thursday may see a clearing trend.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate Southwest winds this afternoon are redistributing recent storm snow to lee aspects. This may provide the load to cause natural avalanches on the midpack facet layers around the November 01 crust.

Avalanche Summary

No New avalanche observations due to obscured visibility.Â On Saturday, a size 3 slab was observed in the hilda creek area. It originated from sloughing in a gully feature and expanded into a slab in the runout at 2400m.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Steady moderate Southwest winds are loading Northeast aspect ridgetops and lee terrain features. Triggering a windslab may provide the energy for an avalanche to step down to the persistent weakness described below.

Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

A persistent facetted weakness can be found around a mid-pack crust. Saturday, an isolated size 3 slab avalanche on a steep Northerly slope in the Hilda Creek area likely ran on this layer.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Dec 5th, 2012 4:00PM