Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Freezing levels at valley bottoms throughout the forecast period. Light winds overnight with a chance of 2-3 cm by morning. Cooler on Wednesday with alpine temperatures near -15 under broken skies with valley fog. On Thursday expect southwest winds building in front of the next Pacific storm moving onto the south coast. 5-10 cm of new snow by Friday morning with strong westerly alpine winds.

Over the weekend, size 1 and size 2 avalanches could be triggered by skiers and explosive avalanche testing in the newly deposited storm snow on north aspects between 1900 and 2100 m. I anticipate avalanches will become harder to trigger as the storm snow settles and temperatures drop.

20-50 cm recent snowfall sits over a thick rain crust. Reports indicate wind loading occurred on north aspects during the storm and then subsequently on southern aspects as the wind shifted around to the north. The crust in the upper snowpack can be found as high as 2400m. At treeline elevation it is thick and supportive, and should be capping any deeper weaknesses. The weak layer from early December has recently become inactive, likely due to all the moisture in the snowpack and subsequent settlement and re-freezing.