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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 21st, 2011–Nov 22nd, 2011
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Kootenay Boundary.

It looks like we are headed into our first large avalanche cycle of the 2011/12 season. The new snowfall is very exciting but please remember to play safe and avoid avalanche terrain through times of dangerous avalanche conditions.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Tuesday: A strong system typically known as a Pineapple Express is moving across the province from the coast. It will bring moderate to heavy amounts of precipitation accompanied by strong south westerly winds. Freezing levels could rise up to 1900m as this pushes through and falling to lower elevations later in the forecast period. This will persist through to Wednesday. Thursday and Friday: Unstable conditions throughout light precipitation expected with freezing levels lowering.

Avalanche Summary

Observations are extremely limited at this time. No new avalanches have been reported from yesterday or today. The next few days will hold a different story. I'd expect widespread avalanche activity. They may react as storm slab instabilities with potentially triggering any weaknesses lower in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Light snowfall amounts 5-10cm overnight in the southern part of the region. 10-30cm of new snow has fallen last friday and saturday, significantly more at the south end of the region. Snowpack depths are likely in the 60-80cm range at about 1600m and about 130 cms at 2000m. In the upper snowpack, wind slab and storm snow instabilities exist around lee features and ridgelines. There are also reports of a thin rain crust in the upper 50cm. With the "Pineapple Express" on it's way we may see an abundance of new snow at higher elevations. The accumulations could surpass our current total snowpack HS.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy amounts of snowfall will accumulate over the next few days. This will likely create widespread avalanche activity all elevations. Storm slabs may be touchy, run far and be destructive. This is a good time to stay out of avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Wind Slabs

Strong southwesterly winds will create new wind slabs on lee slopes and terrain features. These wind slabs may be found lower on the slope in unsuspected areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3