Rising freezing levels and solar radiation will have a weakening effect on the snowpack. Watch for conditions that change throughout the day.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A dry ridge of high pressure will maintain sunny conditions for Monday and Tuesday. A weak trough may bring bring increased cloud and light precipitation by Wednesday evening. Winds should remain generally moderate from the northwest. Freezing levels will hover around 2300m on Monday and Tuesday, and then climb to about 3300m by Wednesday morning.
Avalanche Summary
A size 2 storm slab was observed on Saturday. It likely formed in response to new snow and wind on Friday With continued warming, loose wet avalanches and cornice failures will remain the primary concern, particularly on steeper, sun-exposed slopes.
Snowpack Summary
Recent rain has soaked the upper snowpack, and depending on the air temperature, snow surfaces will now appear moist or as a refrozen crust. Light amounts of cold, lower density snow may overlie this crust on high, north-facing terrain. Much of the terrain below treeline is below threshold for avalanche activity.The hard crust that formed earlier in February can be found up to 100cm below the surface at alpine elevations. Although no recent avalanches have been observed at this interface, professionals are keeping a close eye on it as long as warm temperatures persist. Cornices are reported to be large and fragile.
Problems
Loose Wet
Warming and solar radiation will increase the likelihood of pushy loose wet avalanches. Watch for triggering on steep, sun-exposed slopes. Warming may also promote destructive wet slab avalanches in isolated terrain.
Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Be alert to conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Large cornices will become weak with forecast warming and solar radiation. Use extra caution around ridge crests
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 16th, 2015 2:00PM
