Avalanche Forecast

Fair

Synopsis: A low pressure system will slide southeast and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure bringing more sunshine and mild temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of flurries in the morning and sunny breaks in the afternoon. The freezing level is around 1200 m and winds are light from the southeast. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level is steady around 1400 m and winds are light from the west-northwest. Friday: Mainly sunny. The freezing level should climb to 1600-1800 m during the day.

Natural avalanche activity slowed down on Sunday but there were a couple reports of skier triggered avalanches up to size 2 on Monday, primarily from northeast through southeast aspects in the alpine, and explosive control continued to produce results up to size 3 on Sunday. Check out Wayne Flann's Avalanche Blog for a first hand account of a size 2 skier triggered avalanche from the Blackcomb backcountry on Monday.

The snow surface consists of surface hoar, a sun crust, faceted snow, or thin soft wind slabs depending on aspect and elevation. Below this the recent storm snow (70-120 cm) continues to settle and strengthen. Snowpack tests are still giving generally moderate shears at various density changes within the storm snow, but triggering these instabilities has become more difficult. A weakness of surface hoar and/or a crust exists near the base of the storm snow (now 1-2 m deep). This layer was the culprit in most of the large avalanches that occurred last weekend. This layer could still be triggered in shallow rocky areas or by large triggers like a cornice fall. I would suggest avoiding any large slope that did not release during the latest avalanche cycle. Below this weakness the snowpack is strong and well settled.