Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos.
We're in the time of year where you may find a different avalanche problem on every aspect and elevation. Carefully assess your local conditions.
Confidence
High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 10 cm, 20 to 40 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -9 C.
THURSDAY: Mostly clear skies with no precipitation, 10 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level rising to 1400 m.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 10 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -6 C.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 20 to 40 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -3 C.
Avalanche Summary
No avalanches were observed on Tuesday. Although reports aren't in yet, it is expected that widespread wet loose avalanches were observed out of steep terrain on Wednesday.
Snowpack Summary
Above around 2000 m, upwards of 10 cm of snow may accumulate with strong westerly wind, forming wind slabs in lee terrain features. Below 2000 m, moist snow or a hard melt-freeze crust are found. The snow surface may moisten during daytime warming, particularly on sun-exposed slopes.
A weak layer may be found around 40 to 60 cm deep, which has been most prominent in the south of the region (e.g., access points between Clearwater and Valemount). The layer consists of surface hoar crystals in treeline terrain in areas sheltered from the wind and otherwise a hard melt-freeze crust associated with weak faceted grains on sun-exposed slopes (i.e., east, south, west). Avalanche activity has decreased over the past few days, but the layer should be treated as suspect anywhere it exists. Check out this blog for more information.
The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.
Terrain and Travel
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
- Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A weak layer may be found around 40 to 60 cm deep, particularly in the south of the region (e.g., Wells Gray, Blue River, Valemount). The layer consists of weak faceted grains above a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes and surface hoar in shaded areas sheltered from the wind. This layer is becoming harder to trigger, but a resulting avalanche would be large and destructive.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs may be found in steep, lee terrain features at higher elevations.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Wet
Wet loose avalanches may be triggered during daytime warming, particularly on steep slopes when the sun is packing a punch.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2