Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
Overview: A ridge of high pressure will bring dry conditions to the region on Tuesday. A frontal system will bring moderate snowfall on Wednesday before the dry ridge rebuilds on Thursday.Tuesday: Generally clear skies / Light to moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at 1500mWednesday: 10-15cm of snow / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1400mThursday: Mix of sun and cloud with light flurries / Moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at 600m
Avalanche Summary
In recent days avalanche observations have been very limited, likely because of inclement weather. There was, however, a report of a size 1.5 human triggered slab avalanche in the Harvey Pass area. See our
Incident Report Database for more details.
Snowpack Summary
On Sunday up to 40cm of snow fell at higher elevations and was blown by strong winds into much deeper deposits in lee terrain. Snowpack tests suggest there are still likely weaknesses on a graupel layer near the base of the storm snow. The recent accumulations overlie hard rain crusts which exist on all aspects below 2000m and on solar aspects in the alpine. North of Sparwood and in the Crow's Nest Pass area the buried crust seems more specific to previously sun-exposed slopes. Rain below about 1700m continued to saturate the snowpack, and surfaces may now exist as a hard refrozen crust if temperatures dip below freezing.The deep facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down up to 150cm, is still producing sudden results in snowpack tests. I would be very leery of any slopes that have not already avalanched as any activity at this interface would be large and destructive. Triggering will become more likely with forecast clearing and solar radiation.Cornices have also become large and unstable.
jlammers,
Avalanche Canada
