Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Monday Overnight: Mainly clear with light to moderate northwest winds at ridgetop. Alpine temperatures around -15 C.

Tuesday: Cloud cover increasing in the afternoon. Moderate winds shifting southwest. Temperatures rising to -10 C in the alpine. Snowfall beginning overnight with 5-15 cm of accumulation.

Wednesday: A stormy day. Moderate to strong southwest winds will accompany 15-30 cm of new snow accumulation. Freezing levels rising to 500m in the afternoon. Continued snowfall overnight with another 10-30 cm of accumulation.

Thursday: Snowfall continuing into the morning with another 5-15 cm of accumulation. Winds easing into the afternoon into the light to moderate range from the southwest. Some clearing possible for the afternoon. Freezing levels dropping to valley bottom. 

On Sunday, recreationalists in the Kootenay Pass area observed hard results in a compression test on the early December crust. In this area the crust was buried about 1 meter deep. See the MIN report here.

On Saturday, operators reported several natural and human triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 1 in the alpine and treeline.

2-5mm surface hoar growth has been reported on the snow surface throughout the region formed overnight on Sunday. In the Kootenay Pass and Nelson area, this overlies a thin rain crust formed from warm temperatures during Saturday's storm. 

Saturday's storm brought 10-30 cm of new snow to the region. Moderate northwest winds overnight and into today will create pockets of fresh wind slab in the alpine and treeline. 

Below the new snow, 20-60 cm of more consolidated snow overlies a substantial crust that formed in early December. This crust is 10cm thick on average and is present across all aspects to at least 2300m. A layer of weak facets (sugary snow) has been reported above this crust in Kootenay Pass and the Whitewater backcountry, and likely exists in other areas. This problem is particularly hard to predict and tricky to manage. For this reason wide, conservative terrain margins and disciplined backcountry travel techniques will be very important. Get more details and photos in our forecaster blog. 

The lower snowpack is composed of several early season crusts. Snow depths at treeline average 150-200 cm. Below 1800m the snowpack remains relatively shallow with 80-120cm on average. The deepest snowpack can be found in the Kootenay Pass area.

• Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Be aware of highly variable recent wind loading patterns.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
• Avoid rock outcroppings, convexities, and anywhere the snowpack is thin and/or variable.