Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds shifting south.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Moderate to strong south or southwest winds. alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels rising to 1300 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, new snow totals of 15-30 cm. Snowfall increasing overnight. Moderate to strong south winds. Alpine high temperatures around -5 with freezing levels to 1500 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with easing flurries and a final 5-10 cm of new snow. 3-day snow totals of 35-50 cm. Light variable winds. Alpine high temperatures around -8 with freezing levels to 1000 m.

No new avalanches were reported in the region over the past few days, but snowpack tests around the region continue to show concerning results on critical weak layers buried 30-50 cm deep. These tests continue to highlight the Valemount area as a hotspot for weak layer reactivity, particularly in sheltered openings at treeline and below.

On Sunday, skier triggered and skier remotely triggered persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5 on north aspects at treeline and below treeline were reported just northwest of Valemount. These avalanches failed on the same weak layer of surface hoar discussed above and in our snowpack summary. The sensitivity of this layer has been described as "electric"! 

Watch for avalanche danger to trend upward again on Friday night as new snow accumulates, new slabs form, and a fresh load tests layers deeper in the snowpack.

Data in this region is sparse. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Another layer of large surface hoar was reported in the areas surrounding Valemount and has now been buried by new snow. This will be another layer to watch as snow piles up this weekend.

An active weak layer is now down 30 to 70 cm. The distribution of this layer is variable. In some areas it's surface hoar and/or a crust; in others this layer may be difficult to find if it exists at all. Recent human triggered avalanches have been reported on this layer and have been most numerous in the areas surrounding Valemount.

There is a prominent crust near the base of the snowpack. This crust likely has weak facets above and/or below it. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, but would be most likely to trigger in steep, shallow, rocky terrain, with a thin to thick snowpack.

• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
• Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.