Avalanche Forecast

Moderate -

THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels 2800 m on the Coquihalla and 1600 m on the Duffy. Alpine temperatures near +5 degrees. Ridgetop winds light from the southeast.FRIDAY: Cloudy. Freezing levels and alpine temperatures are the same as Thursday. Ridgetop winds light from the southeast.SATURDAY: Cloudy with light precipitation (5-10 mm) falling as rain at treeline and below treeline and snow in the alpine. Freezing levels 1500 m and alpine temperatures falling to -2. Ridgetop winds light from the South.

On Wednesday, a few natural loose wet avalanches were reported from steep solar slopes. On Tuesday, a natural loose wet avalanche cycle continued on sunny aspects (SE-W) up to size 3, some of these triggered thin slabs. On shady aspects (NW-NE) some slabs up to size 2 ran naturally. The crowns were 30-40 cm deep and we suspect they ran on a facet layer that developed during the cold spell in February.With continued warming it's worth reminding ourselves that glide cracks are to be avoided at all times. They're incredibly unpredictable and when they fail, they often fail big. Glide avalanche concerns are especially important to consider in the Coquihalla area. A recent social media post from a professional in this part of the region does a great job of highlighting the issue. (Link here) A glide failed naturally on a southeast facing slope around 1000 m on Saturday.We suspect that natural avalanche activity will slowly decrease as temperatures drop over the weekend.

Snow surfaces are highly variable. On higher elevation north aspects (above 1900 m) you may find dry, faceted snow. Some of this has been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some unusual wind slabs. On solar aspects (East, South, West) moist snow exists creating melt-freeze conditions at higher elevations and mostly just melt conditions below treeline. The bigger questions are deeper in the snowpack. Down 40-60 cm below the melt-freeze crust on solar aspects and the wintery snow on the polar aspects sits the February facet interface. The warm temperatures will continue to penetrate deeper and destabilize the snowpack. Its hard to say how many hot days and warm nights it will it take to wake up the more deeply buried weak layers that we haven't thought about in a long time.