Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature -16 C. 

Friday: Cloudy, 10-25 cm of snow, strong south wind, alpine high temperature -10 C.

Saturday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -10 C.

Sunday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, light south wind, alpine high temperature -18 C.

In the aftermath of the recent storm, there have been several reports of very large (size 3) avalanches from both natural and human triggers releasing on a surface hoar layer formed in late December. These avalanches have been breaking 60-120 cm deep. 

Be sure to check out this MIN, this MIN, and this MIN for helpful illustrations of slopes that are likely to harbor this problem. A sincere thanks to the community for submitting these reports!

Freshly formed wind slabs on Friday are expected to be reactive to human triggering and will have the potential to step-down to this deeper layer, forming very large and destructive avalanches.

Low density snow will begin to accumulate tomorrow afternoon with 10-25 cm possible. Strong south winds will likely drift this new snow into stiffer slabs on lee terrain features at higher elevations, especially near ridge crests.  

The most recent storm delivered 15-35 cm of snow across the region with southwest winds. Higher accumulations fell in the southern and eastern parts of the region. The storm snow loaded a concerning layer of surface hoar from late December, which is now buried 60-120 cm deep. Recent snowpack tests have confirmed this weak layer's propagation potential, and this layer continues to produce large avalanches across aspects and elevations. 

• Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.