Avalanche Forecast

Moderate -

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing around 2 cm of new snow. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures of -6.Sunday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 2-5 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures around -6.Monday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Strong west winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures of -7.

Reports from Thursday include a few natural storm slab releases to Size 2 from steep alpine terrain in the Fernie area, as well as loose wet releases to Size 1 with ski cutting below treeline. Explosives control targeting persistent slabs that haven't already slid was notably unsuccessful. Large explosive triggers only managed to release storm slabs to Size 2 in the Fernie area.With that said, more active persistent slab conditions are not yet a distant memory. Last week, large avalanches ran on multiple persistent weak layers, even in fairly dense trees and low angle slopes. Activity has gradually tapered off, but it would be wise to expect that the potential for human triggering remains. On Tuesday, explosive control in the Lizard range produced a few large persistent slab avalanches, ranging from Size 2-2.5.Looking forward, new snow from recent storms has introduced both an increased load to the snowpack as well as the possibility for storm slab releases to act as a triggering mechanism for deeper weak layers. Expect ongoing southwest winds to continue loading lee aspects even as snowfall tapers off. These winds will also be promoting slab formation and reactivity.

About 40 cm of new snow has buried a new layer of feathery surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) as well as sun crust on solar aspects. Moderate to strong winds have been encouraging slab formation over this interface at higher elevations and continuously loading loose snow into deeper slabs in lee areas. The winds have also been also building up cornices along ridges. A thin rain crust may be present about 15cm below the snow surface at 1800 m and lower. This crust likely forms the new snow interface at lower elevations.Beneath the new snow, a number of buried weak layers have been very concerning over the past week, and appear to be gaining strength very slowly. The early January surface hoar layer is around 60 cm below the surface and the unstable weak layer from mid-December (predominantly surface hoar and/or a sun crust) is around 100 cm below the surface at treeline and below treeline elevations. A rain crust with sugary facets that developed late-November is near the bottom of the snowpack. All of these layers have been reactive over the past week.