Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 7th, 2018 4:00PM

The alpine rating is low, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

The first warming trend of late winter has begun so expect increased reactivity in the afternoon.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Weather over the next week should remain a stable pattern. Cool overnight and temps rising to single digits over the day. Chance of scattered flurries with up to 10cm on Friday. Temps and freezing levels will rise into the weekend with increased solar radiation, so bring sunscreen.

Snowpack Summary

Surface facetting has weakened much of the upper snowpack through the forecast region. The upper snowpack is generally 50 to 80 cm, over the seasonally persistent instability. Wind slabs and wind effect in open areas in the alpine and treeline elevations.

Avalanche Summary

Some solar triggered loose dry avalanches to sz 2 throughout the forecast zone. Yesterday ridgetop windslab avalanches were triggered with small explosives near Marmot peak.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Expect windslabs in the alpine and at open treeline. The cold has reduced slab conductivity, and the probability for long propagations. Caution is still warranted on exposed or extreme terrain features.

Best conditions found on sheltered aspects.Watch for surface cracking and stiffer surface layers of snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

A cold, facetting, and structurally weak slab up to 80cm thick overlies faceted crystals (well developed in shallow areas). Low elevations will present as a loose dry avalanche problem.

Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche.If triggered dry loose point releases can form deeper deposits in terrain traps.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 8th, 2018 4:00PM