Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

The weather pattern has taken a dramatic shift as the arctic ridge becomes the dominant weather feature through the weekend, bringing colder temperatures and mostly clear skies.Saturday: Mostly clear skies. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels 1100 m. Ridgetop winds light from the West. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near -7 and freezing levels 800 m. Ridgetop winds light from the northwest.Monday: Mostly sunny. Alpine temperatures near -10 and freezing levels 600 m. Ridgetop winds light from the northeast.

On Thursday, the southern part of the region reported a natural slab avalanche size 3.5 from a NE-SE aspect near 1800 m and numerous wet slabs up to size 2.5. An avalanche control mission using explosives in the northern part of the region saw wind slab results up to size 1.5, only running in the surface snow and not stepping down deeper.

Recent snowfall totals are highly variable. In the south, up to 40 cm of new snow fell bringing the alpine totals up to 60 cm this week. In the north, new snow totals are half that and rapidly decreasing below 1800m. This new snow sits on old wind slabs in alpine locations and has buried a crust at treeline. At lower treeline and below elevations, warm temperatures and rain have saturated the upper snowpack. A solid surface crust will likely form with forecast cooler temperatures.Below the surface, 80-150 cm down in the mid pack sits the mid- January crust. It generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, I would remain suspect of this deeper layer while the snowpack adjusts to the new load. Thinner snowpack areas may have a higher likelihood of  an avalanche failing on this layer. Large, looming cornices exist, they are fragile and demand respect.