Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 8th, 2015 8:43AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

ccampbell, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Diligence may be required to maintain conservative decisions in the face of fair weather and decent riding conditions over the weekend.

Summary

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Mostly cloudy with a chance of light flurries Friday evening and Saturday, but generally dry for Sunday. Freezing levels remain in valley bottoms for the forecast period, with above freezing alpine temperatures expected for Friday. Winds should remain generally light and variable.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Wednesday include numerous small natural loose snow and thin storm slab avalanches on steep sun-exposed slopes. One Size 2 80 cm deep persistent slab avalanche was accidentally triggered by a goat on a steep south aspect in the alpine... not sure if he got out...

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has been redistributed into thick wind slab on lee slopes down to treeline elevations from moderate to strong westerly winds. Warm alpine temperatures have moistened the surface snow with a breakable surface crust forming on steep sun-exposed slopes. The mid-December surface hoar/crust persistent weak layer down 50-90 cm is still producing easy to moderate sudden planar test results at treeline elevations and below. Recent reports of whumpfing and the general nature of this weakness suggest it is susceptible to remote triggering and widespread propagation.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent storm snow has been redistributed into thick slabs that are likely sensitive to human triggers.

The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A persistent weakness buried mid-December is primed for human triggers and wide propagations producing very large avalanches. Remote triggering from flat terrain and step-down from shallower weaknesses makes this problem especially tricky to manage.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Stick to small features with limited consequence and be aware of what is above you at all times.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Jan 9th, 2015 2:00PM