Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Sunday and Monday should bring warm, dry weather with light winds. The freezing level climbs to 2200 m by Sunday and rises further to 2500 m on Monday.

On Thursday, a naturally-triggered size 2.5 wind slab was observed on a NE aspect at 2000 m. Numerous loose wet avalanches also failed in response to warming. On Wednesday, loose wet avalanches to size 1.5 were reported below 2100 m. Widespread wind slabs were reported in the alpine and treeline. Recent whumpfing suggests human-triggered slabs may still be possible. Sun and rising temperatures are likely to lead to avalanche activity wherever the snow is warming up.

Warm temperatures and strong sun are rapidly changing the upper snowpack. The snow surface is likely to become moist by day on most aspects and elevations. Overnight refreezing may form surface crusts. Watch out when there is no overnight refreeze: rapid weakening during the day is likely.Down 30-40 cm is a weak layer of surface hoar and facets overlying a melt-freeze crust. In exposed alpine terrain, recent strong SW winds formed wind slabs in leeward features. Large cornices exist and may become weak with daytime warming. There are three dormant persistent weak layers that we are continuing to track. The late-March crust is down 50-70 cm and was reactive last week during the warm period. The mid-March and mid-February layers are typically down between 70 and 100 cm and have been dormant for several weeks. At the base of the snowpack, facets exist. These layers have the potential to wake up with sustained warming, a significant rain event, and/or a big cornice fall.