Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Friday

On friday expect 20-30cm of snow accompanied by moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing levels should sit at about 700m.On saturday the snowfall should continue until first light. After a brief lull in activity, precipitation should resume by mid afternoon. Winds should should be moderate to strong from the southwest and freezing levels are expected to rise to 1500m.On sunday expect continued light snow in the morning, cooling and clearing in the afternoon and light southwesterly winds.

No reports of avalanche activity. Expect avalanche activity with forecast weather.

Up to 35cm of new snow has fallen since the 10th of December. This overlies surface hoar, surface facets, old windslabs and sun crusts (on steep south through west aspects). Winds have been sporadic in this period, with some strong northerlies intermingled with the more dominant light to moderate westerlies. There are new soft slabs on lee features.Deeper in the snowpack there is a rain crust buried between 20-35cm. This crust extends as high as 2200m and some faceting (weakening) has been observed around the crust. Deeper still, the early November surface hoar remains a layer of concern. Buried 100-150cm it is unlikely to trigger, but consequences of triggering would be a large (up to size 3.0) destructive avalanche. Moving forward, the avalanche danger will rise as the load increases and as the slabs harden. Friday's forecast snow and wind should be the start of this.