Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Wednesday night: Coudy with another storm pulse bringing 5-15 cm of new snow. Strong southwest winds.

Thursday: Cloudy with lingering flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Clearing by evening. Light southwest winds shifting northwest. Treeline high temperatures around -2, cooling over the day as freezing levels fall from 1400 metres.

Friday: Mainly sunny. Light south winds becoming strong by evening. Treeline high temperatures around 0, cooler at lower elevations with high likelihood of a temperature inversion.

Saturday: Cloudy with scattered flurries and 5-15 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -7.

Reports from Monday included a few small (size 1) new ski cut wind slabs. Expect a more widespread storm slab problem for Thursday with up to 25 cm of new snow expected from overnight to about noon.

On Sunday, numerous small, loose dry avalanches were reported on slopes that saw the sun.

On Saturday, small, isolated, rider-triggered windslab avalanches were reported at treeline, along with a single, larger, naturally triggered windslab avalanche in the alpine.

There are very few reporting operations in this region, so remember that a lack of observed avalanches does not necessarily mean that there is a lack of avalanche activity. If you are getting out, please share your observations on the Mountain Information Network!

10-20 cm of new snow is expected by Thursday morning, adding to the 10-20 we saw Tuesday night which buried generally wind-effected surfaces in the alpine and in exposed terrain around treeline. In sheltered areas, it will add to 50-70 cm of recent low density snow that is starting to settle and get denser as temperatures rise.

The new snow, recent windslabs, and settling snow are sitting on top of faceted snow that formed during the colder weather last week. The current warming pattern means these upper snowpack layers may become increasingly upside-down and more likely to avalanche. 

There have been isolated reports of two buried surface hoar layers between 30 and 90 cm deep in the Barkerville area. Due to few recent observations in this area, it's wise to assume that these layers remain in play and still have the potential to fail under the weight of a rider. Forecast new snow and warming add to this potential.

This recent Mountain Information Network (MIN) post has a great summary of conditions around the Mt Murray cabin, and some snowpack observations that may relate to one of these surface hoar layers.

• Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.
• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Use careful route-finding and stick to moderate slope angles with low consequences.