Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Esplanade, Goat, Gold, Jordan, North Columbia, North Selkirk, South Columbia, West Purcell.
Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Large avalanches may run into the valley bottom from the alpine.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
We've received an initial report of a serious incident in the southeast of the forecast region. No further information is currently available.
Large storm slabs have been consistently reported over the last few days. Several very large persistent slabs, up to size 4, have also been observed. These were triggered by cornice failures or icefall.
With lots of new snow and rain in the forecast, we expect to see continued large avalanches in the coming days.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 50 cm of new snow may get rained on as freezing levels rise during the day. This may cause storm slabs to fail at all elevations.
There is a significant concern for storm slabs to step down to deeper, persistent weak layers. These consist of surface hoar, facets, or a crust:
Early-March layer down 80–120 cm. This is the primary persistent layer of concern.
Mid-February & Late-January layers down 100–200 cm. There is lingering concern in shallow or rocky areas, otherwise, these are unlikely to be triggered without a significant load, like a cornice failure or storm slab in motion.
Weather Summary
Monday Night
Cloudy with 0 to 2 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1600 m.
Tuesday
Cloudy with 5 to 10 mm/cm of rain/snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature +1 °C. Freezing level 2500 m by end of day.
Wednesday
A mix of sun and cloud, with 5 to 10 mm/cm of rain/snow. 20 to 40 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature +5 °C. Freezing level 3000 m.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy with 10 to 20 mm/cm of rain/snow. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level falling to 2000 m by noon.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
- Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain with no overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
- Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
- Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Avalanches could run full path.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs will be increasingly reactive as snow and rain accumulates, and temperatures rise.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Persistent Slabs
Persistent weak layers are getting overloaded by the new snow, rain, and warming temperatures.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 5
Loose Wet
Wet loose avalanches will be likely during periods of rain, or when the snow surface is moist or wet.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2