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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 11th, 2019–Mar 12th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Avalanche hazard will increase with incoming storm, especially with accumulations of 20 cm or more, especially where wind affected.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light snow with only a trace to a few centimetres. Moderate southwest wind.TUESDAY: Snow with 10 to 20 cm; higher amounts possible with localized showers (some lucky valley could see 30 cm). Moderate southwest wind. Treeline temperatures around -3 C.WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Drying out. Treeline temperatures remaining between -5 and zero. Light northeast wind.THURSDAY: Cloudy. Dry. Light west wind. Treeline temperatures between -5 and zero.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Friday or Saturday. Small loose wet avalanches are likely on south-facing slopes. Small dry loose avalanches are likely on steep terrain elsewhere. Slab avalanches are likely to be confined to extreme terrain features under current conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Forecast snow is likely to form new wind and storm slabs.New snow buried a mix of hard and soft wind slabs in open alpine terrain as well as pockets of soft snow in sheltered and shaded areas. The new snow has also buried widespread sun crusts of varying thickness on south-facing slopes.The upper- and mid-pack is slowly weakening with cold temperatures and faceting. That means it's transforming into a "single layer" of more sugary faceted grains with various hardness. It's also progressively reducing the properties of an overlying slab above these weak layers and diminishing concern for their potential to produce avalanches.There are up to three layers of surface hoar within the top 100cm of the snowpack; however, they're disappearing and becoming less of a concern. Where they still exist, these layers are most likely to be found between 1600 and 1900 m with the top one the most prominent, about 50 cm below the surface.The lower snowpack is maintaining strength in deeper snowpack areas but I doubt that's the case in shallow areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm and wind slabs likely to develop through the day with forecast wind and incoming snow. Watch for accumulations deeper than around 15 or 20 cm.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.The best powder will be found in sheltered locations at or below treeline.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2