Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

THURSDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries / moderate west wind / alpine temperatures around -10 C.FRIDAY: Isolated flurries / moderate to strong west wind / alpine temperatures around -7 C.SATURDAY: Moderate snowfall (amounts uncertain at this point) / strong northwest winds / alpine temperatures around -3 C.

On Wednesday, a few natural wind slabs (size 2) were reported north of Elkford, including some triggered by cornices. A large deep persistent slab with wide propagation was also reported in alpine terrain. On Tuesday, a few natural wind slabs (size 2) were reported in the southeast part of the region.During the warm stormy weather on Sunday and Monday a few large deep persistent slab avalanches were reported (up to size 3), most of which were triggered by cornices on north and east facing slopes. Most large slab avalanches have failed on the deeper November and December weak layers.

The most recent snowfall was accompanied with strong gusty winds, leaving touchy slabs in the alpine and large fragile cornices. Warm temperatures on Monday left moist snow and crusts up to about 1700 m.About 20-50 cm of recent snow covers a weak layer that was buried in mid-January. It is composed of feathery surface hoar in sheltered areas and a sun crust on solar aspects. Another surface hoar layer from early-January is buried 30-60 cm deep. A widespread weak layer from mid-December is composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar and is now buried 60-80 cm deep. Finally, a weak layer of rain crusts and sugary facets buried in late-November exists near the base of the snowpack. Although the snowpack structure is variable across the region, these persistent weak layers are generally widespread. Snowpack depths are also variable across the region and typically thinner in northern areas than in areas to the south.