Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 26th, 2018–Jan 27th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Banff Yoho Kootenay.

We have reached the tipping point for avalanches. Natural activity has slowed down, but the snowpack is perfectly primed for human triggering.  Step way back in terms of your terrain use and exposure.

Weather Forecast

Temps. will be in the -5 to-10C range for Saturday, and slightly cooler in the alpine. At treeline we could see 10-15cm in Kootenay, 5-10 in Lake Louise, and 3-5cm in the Banff by the end of the day, with light to mod. S - SW upper level winds (3000m).  An "atmospheric river" may enter our region Sunday night which could cause an avalanche cycle.

Snowpack Summary

55-75cm of snow has fallen over the past 10 days creating a lot of loose snow on the surface. Alpine winds have distributed this into leeward areas with wind slabs up to 1m thick. Three persistent weak layers lurk in the upper half of the snowpack: Jan 16 down 20-40cm; Jan 6 down 30-50cm; Dec15 down 40-80cm giving easy-mod test results.

Avalanche Summary

There was a fairly widespread avalanche cycle yesterday to size 3 with wind slabs and persistent slabs failing.  Less activity Friday but still some sporadic size 2-3 persistent slabs failing in the region. 

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

There are 3 weak layers in the upper snowpack: Jan 16, Jan 6, and Dec. 15. All are a mix of sun crust, surface hoar and facets depending on your aspect and elevation. Avalanches are occurring on these layers
Use conservative route selection, choose supported terrain with low consequence.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

With up to 75cm of snow over the past 9-days there is plenty of wind slab development available to be blown into touchy windslabs which should be anticipated in alpine and treeline areas.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2