Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos.
Storm snow continuing to accumulate will stress buried weak layers. Expect human triggered avalanches to be likely.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow, accumulation 5-10 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine high temperature -6 C.
WEDNESDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -4 C.
THURSDAY: Scattered flurries, moderate southwest winds, alpine high temperature -6 C.
FRIDAY: Flurries, moderate south wind, alpine high temperature -3 C.
Avalanche Summary
There was likely a natural avalanche cycle on Tuesday.
There was a report of a skier remotely (from a distance) triggered size 1.5 wind slab avalanche in the alpine on Sunday.
Snowpack Summary
30-60 cm of recent snow has accumulated above a widespread layer of large, feathery surface hoar crystals. New snow is expected to continue to accumulate and consolidate above this layer over the next few days, maintaining a high likelihood of human-triggering.
A weak layer formed in late November is now buried around 1 m plus below the surface. This is the layer of concern relating to the persistent slab avalanche problem. The weak layer may present as surface hoar, a crust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect. Below this, a variety of crusts from late October are buried deeper in the snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Snow accumulating above a buried layer of weak surface hoar has created a touchy storm slab problem. The conditions are primed for human triggered avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A couple of weak layers formed in late November and early December are now sitting about 1 m below the surface.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3