Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Wednesday night: Scattered flurries accumulating up to 5 cm, moderate wind from the west, alpine low temperature around -4 C, freezing level dropping to valley bottom.Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries, moderate wind from the west, alpine temperature dropping to -7 C.Friday: Scattered flurries with trace accumulation, moderate wind from the southwest, alpine high temperature rising to +1 C, freezing level rising to 2200 m.

Saturday: 5-10 cm of snow, moderate wind from the southwest, alpine high temperature cooling to -4 C, freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Many large (size 2-3) storm slab avalanches, both natural and explosive triggered, were reported on Wednesday. Expect to see continued natural storm slab activity if the sun comes out on Thursday and with the rapid warming on Friday.

It's now been a week since a widespread cycle of very large deep persistent slab avalanches occurred in response to the storms prior to Christmas. This deep persistent weakness has since been trending toward dormancy. The new snow load and large avalanches on Wednesday were a great test. An absence of reports of storm slab avalanches stepping down to the deeper layers indicates that the deep persistent slab may not be a pertinent avalanche problem at this time.

30 cm of new snow has fallen amid mild temperatures resulting in heavy, moist surface snow at lower elevations. Forecast moderate wind in the alpine is likely loading lee features in high, wind exposed areas. Below 1700 m a hard rain crust is becoming buried. Hard snow sits above weak snow and crusts near the bottom of the snowpack (100-170 cm deep).This weak snowpack structure resulted in very large avalanches prior to Christmas. This layer has since been trending toward dormancy.

• Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.
• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
• Brief periods of sun could quickly initiate natural avalanche activity.