Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West, South Rockies.
Don't let an absence of surface instabilities obscure the bigger issue. The basal snowpack is strengthening, but still demands diligent group management. Keep regrouping in safe locations, spacing out, and avoiding shallow rocky start zones.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches have been reported in the region.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Light new snow amounts have gradually been accumulating on a crust up to 2000 m formed by high freezing levels over the weekend. It adds to already heavily wind-affected surfaces above this elevation. More forecast light flurries won't do much to change this picture over the next few days.
Snowpack testing from our field team indicates the snowpack is gaining strength. A facet/crust layer from mid-December is down 40-70 cm (and 2 cm thick at TL elevation), below the mid-pack is settled and consolidated.
The basal snowpack, or bottom 20-40 cm, consists of faceted grains and is associated with the deep persistent avalanche problem. Observations Tuesday are beginning to suggest strengthening in this area of the snowpack. Treeline snow depths are roughly 120-160 cm.
Weather Summary
Tuesday night
Cloudy. Light west or northwest winds.
Wednesday
Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Light to moderate west or southwest winds, increasing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -5.
ThursdayDiminishing cloud with isolated flurries. Light west winds. Treeline high temperatures around -4 C.
FridayMainly sunny. Light west winds, becoming strong northwest in the alpine. Treeline high temperatures around -5.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Weak, faceted grains make up the basal snowpack. Any avalanche triggered this deep will likely be large and destructive. Be especially suspicious of shallow, rocky, or cross-loaded areas with variable snow depths.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Wind Slabs
Small, thin wind slabs may be found in leeward pockets in exposed terrain.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5