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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 21st, 2013–Mar 22nd, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The pattern over the next five days starts out cool, convective and gusty. It will gradually turn milder, more stable and less windy towards SaturdayFriday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom. Precip: 3/6mm – 4/15cm Wind: Light, NorthSaturday: Freezing Level: 800m Precip: 3/6mm – 4/15cm  Wind: Moderate, NorthSunday: Freezing Level:  Precip: No significant precip expected.  Wind: Calm

Avalanche Summary

Sensitive conditions were reported from the Fernie area Thursday where storm slabs were sensitive to human triggering to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

As of Thursday afternoon storm totals hovered right around the 20 cm mark. Storm slabs will likely continue to be an issue on Friday. Wind-loaded slopes and spill zones (fans where snow accumulates below steep faces) may be particularly touchy. A buried rain crust may provide an easy sliding surface for avalanches. This crust is now down 40 - 70 cm and is supportive to at least 2100 m in most areas as it's up to 9 cm thick. It's thought to be strong enough that snowpack weaknesses below it wont be affected by the load of a person, with the caveat that there may be isolated exceptions (e.g. thin spots near rocks at high elevations). The mid-pack is generally well-settled. Cornices are large and fragile in some areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Additional snow and wind Thursday night will keep the storm slab problem relevant on Friday. Lee loaded slopes and spill zones may be particularly touchy. A buried crust may provide an easy sliding surface for deeper avalanches.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4