Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 23rd, 2013 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

garth lemke, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Happy holidays. The weak basal facets will persist for a long time. Don't let your guard down.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Flurries and seasonal temperatures will continue next few days. Strong West winds may arrive Wednesday afternoon followed by a warm front and 5-15cm or more of snow Thursday into Friday. Thats still a few days away...

Snowpack Summary

Variable snow distribution at treeline and above. Wind slabs continue to develop in lee terrain features. Wind slab buried by recent light snow overlies a facetted snowpack and the basal October 27 rain crust. The crust is distributed unevenly in the forecast area. Facets and depth hoar are just off the ground. This weak base will persist longterm.

Avalanche Summary

No patrol on Monday. Sunday observed several size 2's, likely solar initiated, on cross-loaded gullies above the weeping wall on Mt. Cirrus. They stopped mid-path. Saturday, we observed 2 size 3 avalanches on east facing cross-loaded alpine bowl near Mt. Saskatchewan/Wilson area, 2 size 2.5 on a similar aspect in the Winston Churchill range.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The Oct 27 raincrust has a sporadic distribution. An avalanche on this layer could still step down to ground and have severe consequences. We have observed a few avalanches on this layer recently.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recent turbulent winds have redistributed snow into sheltered terrain features. Anything that is steep enough to slide and has sufficient snow to ski on should be evaluated. Recent snow likely is hiding this problem.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 24th, 2013 4:00PM