Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Monday night: Clear with increasing cloud coverage, trace of new snow, strong southwest wind, treeline low around -5 °C, freezing level below valley bottom. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, up to 5 cm new snow, strong southwest wind, treeline high around -1 °C, freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, up to 5 cm new snow, strong southwest wind, treeline high around +3 °C, freezing level rising to 2200 m.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, trace of new snow, moderate southwest wind, treeline high around +4 °C, freezing level around 2400 m.

On Sunday, a few small (up to size 1.5) wind slab avalanches were triggered by skiers and explosives.

On Friday, explosives and skiers easily triggered storm slab avalanches to size 1.5.

On Wednesday, explosive control work produced numerous loose dry and thin wind slab avalanches in alpine terrain. These avalanches started small but entrained mass in tracks, growing to size 2.5 and running up to 1300 m. It is worthy to note that no deep slabs were triggered.

The persistent slab problem has produced sporadic and spotty activity in the South Rockies and nearby regions. The activity increased over the past weekend. 

• On Monday, a large size 3 deep persistent slab released naturally in the neighbouring Waterton National Park. The avalanche was more than 2 m deep.
• On Sunday, a very large (size 4) persistent slab avalanche that released naturally in the neighbouring Waterton National Park was observed. The avalanche released at an elevation of 2000 m on an E-NE aspect.
• On Saturday, Jan 8, explosives triggered a very large (size 4) deep persistent slab avalanche at 2100 m on a SE aspect. The avalanche failed 1-2 m deep on the early December layer. 
• On Friday, a large (size 2.5) natural deep persistent slab avalanche released in the west of the region and was reported in this MIN post.
• The last activity before that occurred on Dec 31, when explosives triggered a size 2.5 wind slab avalanche that stepped down to the persistent weak layer on a SE aspect near treeline. 

A few recent notables from surrounding regions feature in our latest blog, Photos of recent persistent slab avalanches in the southern interior.

The recent storm snow totals 40-70 cm. Strong to extreme southwest winds have developed reactive deposits around convex and lee features. This recent snow covered a hard, faceted snow surface which formed during cold temperatures, and may take a little time to bond. 

The most notable layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that was formed in early December and is now typically down 80-150 cm. Activity on this layer has been sporadic, the most recent persistent slab avalanche in the region was on Saturday, January 8. This layer has created a tricky low likelihood, high consequence scenario which is best managed through conservative terrain choices and disciplined backcountry travel techniques.

• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.