Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 20th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada mbender, Avalanche Canada

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Expect avalanche danger to rise to High through the day on Thursday. Snow, wind and warm temperatures are likely to overload a persistent slab problem.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A remotely (from a distance) triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche was reported on a north aspect at 1350 m on Tuesday. The fracture line was 50 cm deep and ran on a surface hoar layer 50 cm deep.

Additionally there were numerous naturally triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanches running on north aspects suspected to have run on surface hoar buried in early December.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of new snow may accumulate Wednesday night through Thursday.

A buried layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried mid-December can be found down 35 to 60 cm from the surface. An additional layer of buried surface hoar may exist deeper in the snowpack, roughly 70 to 100 cm below the surface.

The remaining mid and lower snowpack contains several crusts from early in the season that are generally well-bonded to the surrounding snowpack.

Snow depth decreases significantly at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with snow 5-10 cm, ridgetop wind southwest 30 to 50 km/h, treeline temperature -3 °C, freezing level 900 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with 10-20 cm of snow, ridgetop wind southwest 30-60 km/h, treeline temperature -2 °C. freezing level 1100 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 10 to 20 cm of snow, ridgetop wind south 40-80 km/h, treeline temperature -2 °C, Freezing level 700 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 1-3 cm of snow, ridgetop wind south 20-30 km/h, treeline temperature -4 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will build and become more reactive as snow accumulates through the day Thursday.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

Two layers of surface hoar may be found 30 and 90 cm below the snow surface. New snow and warm temperatures will increase reactivity of these layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Dec 21st, 2023 4:00PM

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