Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 24th, 2022–Mar 25th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Wet loose avalanches are the biggest concern right now. They are most likely on steep slopes that are baking in the sun. They are less likely if you are finding a thick, supportive surface crust. Pay attention to changing conditions through the day.

Confidence

Moderate - The snowpack structure is generally well understood. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. No new rain/snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom. 

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. No new rain/snow expected. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop winds. Freezing level around rising to around 2000 m through the day.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. No new rain/snow expected. Light southwest ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 750 m overnight, rising to 2300 m through the day.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Drizzle of rain. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 2700 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Small wet loose avalanches continue to occur on south-facing aspects from solar radiation and daytime warming (up to size 2). On Thursday, a few wet slab avalanches were reported in the alpine. 

Remember that a lack of reported avalanches does not necessarily mean that there is a lack of avalanche activity. If you are out in the backcountry, and have photos, conditions updates, or even just good vibes to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

A skiff of new snow and possibly thin windslabs in high elevation terrain. Refrozen crust on all aspects up to 2000 m, softening in the afternoon at low elevations, and on steep, sunny slopes. Recent warm temperatures, sun, and rain have made the top 10-15 cm of the snowpack moist. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Start on smaller terrain features and gather information before committing to bigger terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • Avoid lee and cross loaded slopes in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Freezing levels are falling overnight, but the surface snow may not solidly refreeze. Loose wet avalanches have been common on steep, sunny slopes. 

Paying close attention to how thick and supportive the surface crust is throughout the day, and sticking to shady slopes when the sun is packing a punch are good ways to avoid any wet loose avalanche problems.

Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Recent snowfall and westerly winds are expected to have formed wind slabs on lee features in the alpine. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5