Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Lizard-Flathead.
Avalanche danger will increase during periods of strong solar radiation.
Head out with a conservative mindset and dial back your terrain choices until the weather cools.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 2000 m.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with light precipitation. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 2500 m.
THURSDAY: Partially cloudy. Light westerly winds. Freezing level around 2000 m.
FRIDAY: Partially cloudy. Light southwest winds. Freezing level around 1600 m.
Avalanche Summary
Over the past two days, a few natural cornice failures (size 1-2) have been observed, with some initiating slab avalanches on the slope below. Several small wet loose avalanches have been observed on south-facing aspects from solar radiation and daytime warming (size 1).
Snowpack Summary
10-15 cm of recent snowfall overlies 20 to 40 cm of heavy powder at upper elevations, while warm temperatures have left moist and crusty surfaces below 1800 m on all aspects and into the alpine on south-facing aspects. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.
Terrain and Travel
- The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
- Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating.
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
If the sun comes out on Wednesday, warm temperatures compounded by strong solar radiation may weaken the upper snowpack, creating wet loose avalanches out of steep terrain.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Wind Slabs
Recent snowfall and westerly winds are expected to have formed wind slabs on lee features in the alpine.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices have grown significantly in the past two weeks. Warm temperatures may make cause cornices to become weak. Cornice failures are dangerous on their own, but also have the potential to trigger larger avalanches on the slopes below.
Give them a wide berth when travelling on ridge-lines and minimize overhead exposure to large cornices.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3