Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 4th, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
kdevine,
Avalanche Canada
Storm slabs will likely be reactive to human triggering, especially in wind loaded areas. Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking and recent avalanches.
Concern remains for a persistent weak layer, which is best managed through conservative terrain choices.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, 5-10 cm / light west wind / alpine low temperature near -12Â
TUESDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries in the afternoon, up to 5 cm / light west wind, becoming moderate southwest in the afternoon / alpine high temperature near -9Â
WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries, up to 5 cm / southwest wind 40-60 km/hr / alpine high temperature near -8 / freezing level 1200 m
THURSDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light south wind / alpine high temperature near -6
Avalanche Summary
Fresh snow and wind may continue to overload a weak layer of surface hoar that has been observed in the areas surrounding Valemount. Human triggered avalanches are likely.
Field observations in this region are limited. If you get out, please consider submitting your observations to the Mountain Information Network.Â
Snowpack Summary
Another layer of large surface hoar was reported in the areas surrounding Valemount and has now been buried by about 20-30 cm. of recent snow.Â
An active persistent weak layer is now down 50 to 100 cm. The distribution of this layer is variable. In some areas it's surface hoar and/or a crust. In other areas this layer may be difficult to find if it exists at all. Recent human triggered avalanches have been reported on this layer and have been most numerous in the areas surrounding Valemount.
There is a prominent crust near the base of the snowpack. This crust likely has weak facets above and/or below it. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, but would be most likely to trigger in steep, shallow, rocky terrain, with a thin to thick snowpack.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
- Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
- Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Recent fresh snow and wind has formed storm slabs in many areas that will likely still be easy to trigger.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Concern remains for a very weak layer of surface hoar down 60-90 cm. This layer has been found to be most prevalent at treeline and below in the areas near Valemount.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 5th, 2021 4:00PM
