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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 3rd, 2017–Feb 4th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

There is a lot of uncertainty with snowfall amounts through the period. There is good potential for amounts to exceed what is forecast. If that is the case, expect danger ratings to be higher than indicated.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Flurries, accumulation 5-10cm overnight Friday into Saturday morning and an additional 10-15cm through the day / Light east wind / Alpine temperature -10Sunday: Periods of snow, accumulation 15-25cm / Light to moderate east wind / Alpine temperature -3Monday: Flurries, accumulation 10-15cm / Light to moderate east wind / Alpine temperature -15More details can be found on the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

There is no recent avalanche activity to report from the last few days, although I would expect avalanche activity to start to increase as new snow amounts start to accumulate over the coming days.

Snowpack Summary

Anywhere from 10-20cm of new snow is laying on previous surfaces that may include heavily wind affected snow, surface hoar in sheltered areas and/or facets. Crusts can be found near the previous surface on solar aspects at high elevations and on all aspects below 1600m. There have been isolated reports of a surface hoar layer from early January buried about 40-50cm deep in sheltered areas, although not much is known about its current reactivity. About 70cm below the surface, you'll find sugary facet crystals which formed during December's cold snap. Although avalanches are currently unexpected at this interface, this layer could come back to life with with warming, significant loading or a large trigger at a thin spot.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snowfall is accumulating. Additionally, combined with easterly wind this will start to form wind slabs in upper elevation lees.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Be aware of the potential for avalanches due to buried surface hoar in isolated areas.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2