Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
Confidence
Poor - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level peaks near 2800 m and ridge winds are moderate from the SW. Saturday: Light showers – 3-6 mm. The freezing level is near 2000-2200 m and winds are strong from the SW. Sunday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of showers/flurries. The freezing level is around 1800-2000 m and winds remain moderate from the W-SW.
Avalanche Summary
Recent observations are limited. The only new reports are of minor loose snow sluffing out of steep terrain in the Fernie area. Light rain and warming temperatures early on Thursday could kick off a more widespread loose wet or wet slab cycle.
Snowpack Summary
Temperatures were already on the rise with light precipitation beginning early Thursday morning. This probably resulted in rain to ridgetop creating moist or wet snow at all elevations. The snow surface probably won't refreeze unless there is significant clearing overnight. The mid March rain crust is down 30-60cm and has shown a good bond with snow above. Old persistent weak layers are still intact in the mid and lower snowpack. There is potential for these layers to wake up depending on how much rain and how warm it gets. Recent cornice growth has been reported and these cornices may become fragile with warming.
Avalanche Problems
Wet Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Loose Wet
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 3 - 5