Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 26th, 2015–Mar 27th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Warm temperatures and sunshine are the main drivers of avalanche hazard at the moment. Minimize your exposure to large slopes if the snowpack is becoming moist or wet.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level peaks near 2800 m and ridge winds are moderate from the SW. Saturday: Light showers – 3-6 mm. The freezing level is near 2000-2200 m and winds are strong from the SW. Sunday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of showers/flurries. The freezing level is around 1800-2000 m and winds remain moderate from the W-SW.

Avalanche Summary

Recent observations are limited. The only new reports are of minor loose snow sluffing out of steep terrain in the Fernie area. Light rain and warming temperatures early on Thursday could kick off a more widespread loose wet or wet slab cycle.

Snowpack Summary

Temperatures were already on the rise with light precipitation beginning early Thursday morning. This probably resulted in rain to ridgetop creating moist or wet snow at all elevations. The snow surface probably won't refreeze unless there is significant clearing overnight. The mid March rain crust is down 30-60cm and has shown a good bond with snow above. Old persistent weak layers are still intact in the mid and lower snowpack. There is potential for these layers to wake up depending on how much rain and how warm it gets. Recent cornice growth has been reported and these cornices may become fragile with warming.

Avalanche Problems

Wet Slabs

Very warm temperatures and sunshine could trigger wet slab avalanches, which may move slow but can run surprisingly far.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Expect loose wet slides on steep sun-exposed slopes during the day. These sluffs could gain considerable mass.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

Rapid warming and solar radiation could make deeper persistent weaknesses more susceptible to triggering, especially and sun-exposed and thinly snow-covered slopes.
Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>Use caution around convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 5